Understanding drought dynamics during dry season in Eastern Northeast Brazil

Eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB) generally experiences a high variability in precipitation in the dry season, with amplitudes that can overcome 500mm. The understanding of this variability can help in mitigating the socio-economic issues related to the planning and management of water resources this region, which is highly vulnerable to drought. This work aims to assess spatio-temporal variability of precipitation during the dry season and investigate the relationships between climate phenomena and drought events in the ENEB, using univariate (Spearman correlation) and multivariate statistical techniques, such as Principal Component Analysis, Cluster Analysis, and Maximum Covariance Analysis. The results indicate that the variability of precipitation in the dry season can be explained mainly (62%) by local physical conditions and climate conditions have a secondary contribution. Further analysis of the larger anomalous events suggests that the state of Atlantic and Pacific oceans can govern the occurrence of those events, and the conditions of Atlantic Ocean can be considered a potential modulator of anomalous phenomena of precipitation in ENEB

Sexually transmitted infections in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND: Data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Saudi Arabia (SA) and other Islamic countries are limited. This study describes the results of a five-year surveillance for STIs in SA. METHODS: This is a case series descriptive study of all confirmed STIs diagnosed in SA from January, 1995 through December, 1999. RESULTS: A total of 39049 STIs were reported to the Ministry of Health. Reported STIs included nongonococcal urethritis (14557 infections, 37.3%), trichomoniasis (10967 infections, 28.1%), gonococcal urethritis (5547 infections, 14.2%), syphilis (3385 infections, 8.7%), human immunodeficiency virus (2917 infections, 7.5%), genital warts (1382, 3.5%), genital herpes (216 infections, 0.6%), and chancroid (78 infections, 0.2%). The average annual incidence of STIs per 100,000 population for Saudis and non-Saudis, respectively, was as follows: 14.8 and 7.5 for nongonococcal urethritis, 9.4 and 10.4 for trichomoniasis, 5.2 and 4.2 for gonorrhea, 1.7 and 6.4 for syphilis, 0.6 and 8.0 for HIV, 1.4 and 0.7 for genital warts, 0.1 and 0.4 for genital herpes, and 0.1 and 0.1 for chancroid. The incidence of STIs was somewhat steady over the surveillance period except for nongonococcal urethritis which gradually increased. CONCLUSION: Nongonococcal urethritis, trichomoniasis, and gonococcal urethritis were the most commonly reported STIs in SA. Even though the incidence of STIs in SA is limited, appropriate preventive strategies that conform to the Islamic rules and values are essential and should be of highest priority for policymakers because of the potential of such infections to spread particularly among the youth

Verification and Control of Partially Observable Probabilistic Real-Time Systems

We propose automated techniques for the verification and control of probabilistic real-time systems that are only partially observable. To formally model such systems, we define an extension of probabilistic timed automata in which local states are partially visible to an observer or controller. We give a probabilistic temporal logic that can express a range of quantitative properties of these models, relating to the probability of an event's occurrence or the expected value of a reward measure. We then propose techniques to either verify that such a property holds or to synthesise a controller for the model which makes it true. Our approach is based on an integer discretisation of the model's dense-time behaviour and a grid-based abstraction of the uncountable belief space induced by partial observability. The latter is necessarily approximate since the underlying problem is undecidable, however we show how both lower and upper bounds on numerical results can be generated. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it in the PRISM model checker and applying it to several case studies, from the domains of computer security and task scheduling

Outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome at Tertiary Care Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 2014

During March–May 2014, a Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak occurred in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, that included many persons who worked or received medical treatment at King Fahd General Hospital. We investigated 78 persons who had laboratory-confirmed MERS during March 2–May 10 and documented contact at this hospital. The 78 persons with MERS comprised 53 patients, 16 healthcare workers, and 9 visitors. Among the 53 patients, the most probable sites of acquisition were the emergency department (22 patients), inpatient areas (17), dialysis unit (11), and outpatient areas (3). Infection control deficiencies included limited separation of suspected MERS patients, patient crowding, and inconsistent use of infection control precautions; aggressive improvements in these deficiencies preceded a decline in cases. MERS coronavirus transmission probably was multifocal, occurring in multiple hospital settings. Continued vigilance and strict application of infection control precautions are necessary to prevent future MERS outbreaks

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Causes of Mortality for Indonesian Hajj Pilgrims: Comparison between Routine Death Certificate and Verbal Autopsy Findings

10.1371/journal.pone.0073243PLoS ONE88-POLN

Prolonged In Vivo Retention of a Cathepsin D Targeted Optical Contrast Agent in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer\u27s Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cathepsin D (CatD) is a lysosomal protease that is elevated early in Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). We have previously developed a Targeted contrast agent (CA) to detect CatD activity in vivo, consisting of a magnetic resonance imaging/fluorescent moiety linked to a cell penetrating peptide (CPP) by means of a CatD cleavage site and have demonstrated its uptake in the brain of an AD mouse model. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to characterize the in vivo retention of a near infra-red fluorescent dye labeled version of this CA. METHODS: Six adult C57Bl/6 wild-type mice and six adult 5XFAD transgenic AD mice were studied using a small animal imaging system at five and twelve months of age using our novel Targeted CA, or two different control CAs; a Non-Targeted (lacking the CatD cleavage site) and a Non-Penetrating (lacking the CPP). Following intravenous CA administration, the optical signal was recorded within the brain and uptake and washout curves were measured and fitted to a one-phase exponential decay curve. RESULTS: In all wild-type and 5XFAD mice, the washout of the Targeted CA that included a CPP domain was significantly slower than the washout of the Non-Penetrating and Non-Targeted CA. Furthermore, the washout of the CatD Targeted CA was significantly slower in the 5XFAD mice compared to the age matched wild-type controls (p \u3c  0.05) at 5 and 12 months of age. Control CAs showed no differences in washout. CONCLUSIONS: The prolonged retention of the CatD targeted CA in 5XFAD mice suggests this agent may be useful for AD detection

Postepidemic Analysis of Rift Valley Fever Virus Transmission in Northeastern Kenya: A Village Cohort Study

RVFV infection causes significant disease in both human and animal populations, resulting in significant agricultural, economic and public health consequences. We conducted a cohort study on residents of a high-risk area to measure human anti-RVFV seroprevalence, to identify risk factors, and to estimate the durability of prior RVFV immunity. One hundred two individuals tested for RVFV exposure before the 2006–2007 RVF outbreak were restudied to determine interval anti-RVFV seroconversion and persistence of humoral immunity since 2006. Ninety-two additional subjects were enrolled from randomly selected households to help identify risk factors for current seropositivity. Seroprevalence in the region was high (23%). 1/85 at-risk individuals restudied in the follow-up cohort had seroconverted since early 2006. 29% of newly tested individuals were seropositive. After adjustment in multivariable logistic models, age, village, and drinking raw milk were significantly associated with RVFV seropositivity. Visual impairment (defined as ≤20/80) was much more likely in the RVFV-seropositive group. Among those with previous exposure, RVFV titers remained at protective levels (>1∶40) for more than 3 years. This study highlights the high seroprevalence among Northeastern Kenyans and the ongoing surge in seroprevalence with each RVF outbreak

Ancient Ancestry of KFDV and AHFV Revealed by Complete Genome Analyses of Viruses Isolated from Ticks and Mammalian Hosts

Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever (AHF) and Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD) viruses both cause serious and sometimes fatal human disease in their respective ranges, Saudi Arabia and India. AHFV was first identified in the mid-1990s and due to its strong genetic similarity to KFDV it has since been considered the result of a recent introduction of KFDV into Saudi Arabia. To gain a better understanding of the evolutionary history of AHFV and KFDV, we sequenced the full-length genomes of 3 KFDV and 16 AHFV. Sequence analyses show a greater genetic diversity within AHFV than previously thought, particularly within the tick population. The phylogeny constructed with these 19 full-length sequences and two AHFV sequences from GenBank indicates AHFV diverged from KFDV almost 700 years ago. Given the presence of competent tick vectors in the regions between and surrounding Saudi Arabia and India and the recent identification of AHFV in Egypt, these results suggest a broader geographic range of AHFV and KFDV, and raise the possibility of other AHFV/KFDV–like viruses circulating in these regions